Benefiting from what we know

November 13, 2020

We’re eight rounds into the 38-round marathon that is the English Premier League and with the International matches forcing another break before things start up again next weekend, now’s the time to take stock and recalibrate.

First, some brutal honesty from a personal perspective. From my first blog I said that I’d be looking to a 55 percent win rate across the season which would ensure a decent profit from a betting perspective. So far, I’ve predicted 39 out of 78 matches played correctly – a rate of 50 percent. That’s probably still enough to be slightly in the black, although it’s not good enough for me. 

Having said that, we’ve all negotiated some of the most turbulent and unpredictable starts in the history of the League, which is borne out by the league table: Leicester are top, followed by Tottenham, Liverpool and Southampton. Manchester City are 10th, Arsenal 11th and Manchester United 14th. 

Every team has lost at least once, but this is where I’m clutching a gold nugget for the next phase.

The four teams who have only lost one game are Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City. And these are the four teams I’m going to invest in to fill the top four at the end of the season. Worringly though for Liverpool is that they have conceded 16 goals, an average of two per match, and only Leeds and West Brom (both 17) have leaked more. With the Liverpool defence troubled by long-term injuries to Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez, their prospects of successfully defending their title are getting slimmer.

In terms of the scoring trends, below is what we have seen so far.

1-0: 16 times

2-1: 8 times

2-0: 8 times

1-1: 8 times

3-0: 8 times

3-1: 6 times

4-1: 4 times

These stats don’t lie, so use them to your advantage when playing Superbru and when punting for the next phase.

Another observation though. As the weather gets more and more wet in the UK, I feel that the goals will start drying up. Don’t be shy to throw in the 0-0s, 1-0s and 2-0s and if there are odds of under the 2.5 goals per game, that might be where the value lays going forward.

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