How to tiptoe through the minefields

November 5, 2020

I expected at least a 6/10 from last week’s of fixtures after a couple of rocky rounds, but came through with 7/10, so finally saw some green arrows on Superbru, writes Gary Lemke.

There were another two 1-0 results, which pushed that scoreline up to 13, which as you can see below, is considerably the most popular result through the first 68 matches.

And, as we highlighted a fortnight ago, the results are starting to “normalise” after a 6-1 and a 7-2 on the same Sunday evening. I think that when you look at the trends below, the top six scorelines will start creating a buffer between them and the rest, be sure that 0-0 and 2-2 are under-represented in what we’ve seen so far, so those who are brave in their selections and go for 0-0 or 2-2 when looking at a draw, will receive their fare share of rewards.

This week is altogether more tricky yet again, and it’s another round before the next International break, as well as coming in another round of European action. Those teams who weren’t involved in Europe could well produce an upset here and there because their legs will be a bit fresher than those clubs who had to play. I think that if you manage 5/10 this week you will see more green arrows than red in your Superbru pools. Our pool at GGGaming.bet (code: gongimps) sits on 1563 players, a really healthy number of players who have a chance to win prizes each week. It’s never too late to join. 

Result trends so far this season:

1-0: 13 times

2-1: 8 times

1-1: 7 times

2-0: 7 times

3-0: 7 times

3-1: 5 times

5-2: 3 times

3-3: 3 times

4-3: 3 times

0-0: 2 times

4-0: 2 times

4-1: 2 times

4-2: 2 times

3-2: 1 time

6-1: 1 time

7-2: 1 time

2-2: 1 time

Brighton 2 Burnley 1: Burnley sit bottom and their problem has been lack of goals scored – just three in six matches. Brighton have scored 11 from seven games but have only won once. Burnley’s only goals have come on away trips. 

Southampton 1 Newcastle 0: Here we go again with Newcastle. Their formline has been WLDWLDW. Which means they’re due another “L” and away to a high-flying Saints that might be the case. However, Southampton will sorely miss the injured Danny Ings.

Everton 1 Man United 1: After four straight wins, Everton have lost two of their last three – to Southampton and Newcastle – while Man United lost in Turkey in midweek after going down to Arsenal at the weekend. But, they’ve actually won both their away League matches this season.

Crystal Palace 1 Leeds 1: Another tough game to call. Palace have won three, lost three and drawn one – which is identical to Leeds. Ironically, Leeds have had their best form away from home, beating Villa and Sheffield United and losing 4-3 to Liverpool at Anfield. 

Chelsea 3 Sheffield United 1: The clean sheets keep mounting for Chelsea with another one in France in midweek. They’ve also had three in their last four League games and are strong favourites to beat struggling Sheffield United here. Law of averages says they’ll concede a goal though?

West Ham 2 Fulham 0: The Cottagers got off the bottom of the table by beating West Brom last week, a win that will give them confidence for the trip across London. West Ham were beaten by Liverpool last time but previously drew with Man City and Spurs and beat Leicester and Wolves, a formline which should be strong enough for them to win here.

West Brom 0 Tottenham 3: West Brom lost at Fulham last week and look relegation material. Tottenham meanwhile are up to third on the table. This game surely is the banker of the weekend, with Jose’s Spurs bolstered by Gareth Bale’s first goal back.

Leicester 1 Wolves 1: It’s been either win or bust for Leicester who have won five and lost two. They’ve been impressive in beating Leeds and Arsenal in their last two but I like the way Wolves play. They’ve won three of their last four and should have held on to beat Newcastle. In terms of quality, this could be the match of the round.

Man City 1 Liverpool 1: An early glimpse as to where the end-of-season plaudits might go. Champions and log leaders Liverpool come off the back of another impressive European win. City meanwhile, haven’t scored more than one goal in their last four games – against Sheffield United, West Ham, Arsenal and Leeds and before that lost 5-2 to Leicester. Surely, Pep’s team have to break that “one goal” trend soon?

 

Arsenal 2 Aston Villa 1: The Gunners have been involved in three 1-0s in their last three games, losing two of them. They’re up against a Villa side who have lost their last two after winning four in a row. This is another where the result isn’t a foregone conclusion. 

My most confident picks: Wins for Chelsea, West Ham, Tottenham, Arsenal

Toughest to call: Southampton vs Newcastle, Everton vs Man United, Crystal Palace vs Leeds, Leicester vs Wolves, Man City vs Liverpool

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