Quiet before another storm!

October 9, 2020

Perhaps this is the perfect time to take a breather. A week’s break from the hurly-burly of the English Premiership, four rounds of scoring mayhem that has blown away most predictions. 

The easiest way to illustrate the incredible results that we’ve seen in the opening four rounds before this week’s International break, is the scoreline trend. And to take stock of where we are at.

Apart from the high scores, the things that stick out for me are the fact that there have only been two draws from the 38 matches – a percentage of 5.26. Now, as a punter, despite the draw usually being the outcome that pays the biggest dividend, by backing the draw over the first four rounds will have proven costly. And the two draws have been Tottenham (vs Newcastle) and Leeds (vs Manchester City). Both were upsets.

Although you will also have seen that there’s been a 7-2 (Aston Villa beating Liverpool) and a 6-1 (Spurs thrashing Manchester United). Plus, the 5-2 scoreline has cropped up three times. All in all an incredible first four rounds as you can see below.

1-0: 6 times

3-0: 5 times

3-1: 5 times

2-0: 4 times

2-1: 3 times

5-2: 3 times

4-3: 2 times

4-0: 2 times

4-2: 2 times

1-1: 2 times

3-2: 1 time

3-3: 1 time

6-1: 1 time

7-2: 1 time

I have been struggling for exact wins this Superbru season and to anyone who has managed to get a few you will have seen plenty green arrows in your pool. Well done. I hung on to get 5 out of 10 last week when I forecast that a 6/10 would be a good round if you could attain that. 

What I have been most heartened by is the feedback from our GGGaming players that have looked at my predictions and tweaked theirs based on my comments. That feedback is extremely positive, which shows that the value of having a short paragraph analysis per match has helped you with yours. 

I vowed to be transparent throughout this whole process and right now I’m in 426th place in our GGGaming pool of 1466 players. I’m extremely competitive and that position is simply not good enough on my part. However, my percentage of correct results is 55.26 and I’m actually satisfied with that. I mentioned in the first column that you should be looking to get between 50 and 55% correct scores and you’ll make a profit. My standing has been hurt by the fact that I’ve only got the one exact result, which awards three golden points on Superbru. 

Well done to each and every one of the 425 players ahead of me in the GGGaming pool, but be assured I am studying form and trends as much as anyone and hope to bounce back strongly in the rounds that lie ahead.

Next week’s round isn’t easy, just as a spoiler alert.

Log leaders Everton play Liverpool in the Merseyside derby, while Man City host Arsenal, Newcastle are at home to Man United, Leicester take on Villa and Leeds play Wolves, amongst the headline games. It’s actually going to be the toughest round of the season so far. The average number of goals scored so far is 3.79 per game.

I’m convinced that the lack of crowds due to Covid-19 restrictions has played a part in the high number of away wins – in what world would Man United lose 6-1 to Spurs at Old Trafford in there was a full stadium – while it doesn’t appear to me that all the teams are at a similar level of fitness. But, that’s a topic for another time.

Until next week.

Gary

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