My eyes lit up when I saw the fixtures for this second round of English Premier League fixtures as there looks to be a number of good betting opportunities, writes Gary Lemke.
In fact, I’m reminded of round seven of last season when I had 9/10 correct predictions on Superbru, while rounds 16 and 26 last season had 8/10 returns. There were also three rounds when there was a 7/10 strike rate, which shows that sometimes your ship does come in.
Having said that, I’m offering full transparency and saying that round 28 last year coughed up a 1/8 and round 35 a 2/10. So, sometimes when one’s eyes light up not everything is how you think you see it.
But, I have a feeling about this week and reckon there’s a potential 7/10 return lurking in there to go with a 5/8 opening round that would have been satisfactory had I managed to get an exact score, which earns one three points on Superbru.
However, our suggested best bet, an all to come win treble, came home at odds of 2.17 to 1, so we’re in profit.
Also, a couple of pointers from last week’s opening blog. In my scenario of pre-season league standings, I had Fulham to finish last, 20th, with West Ham in 19th. Both lost on the weekend, but I didn’t expect the Hammers to lose at home and actually went for the draw with them. This week though their task doesn’t get any easier.
I also mentioned that when predicting scorelines at this time of year – at least until Christmas when the bad weather sets in around the UK, which tends to man that marginally fewer goals are scored in those conditions – I steer away from the 0-0 draws and err on the side of higher scoring matches than lower scoring. In last week’s opening round there were 23 goals scored from the eight matches; call it an average three goals a game.
And I also said that while there are no crowds at the matches due to Covid-19, there are more away wins than usual, because the home crowd is no longer the extra player on the field. Last week six away teams out of eight won to prove this.
What I didn’t expect is that there were no draws from the eight matches, which surely means there will be a draw or two this round. Historical stats say that you can’t have 18 games without a draw – and that is the potential banana skin this round.
For what it’s worth, I’m going to quickly run through the way I see this round going and then offer some suggested bets at the end. I will always offer a suggested best bet for the round, which is the one we’ll keep tabs on with our profit margins throughout the season.
Everton vs West Brom 2-0. The hosts were impressive away to Spurs and look top six contenders. I expect them to win this. The only potential red light is that traditionally the earliest afternoon kick-off springs the biggest upset.
Leeds vs Fulham 2-0. All three promoted teams lost on the opening week by Leeds were involved in a thriller at champions Liverpool, losing 4-3. Fulham, on the other hand, lost 3-0 at home to Arsenal. Expect Leeds to win, but in last year’s Championship match-ups they each one once against one another.
Man United vs Crystal Palace 2-0. Although Palace won on the opening weekend, United have big ambitions this year and a strong squad and open their account at home. Surely, they’ll win this one?
Arsenal vs West Ham 2-0. The Gunners had their celebrity mouthpiece Piers Morgan raving about their win over Fulham, while West Ham lost at home on opening day to Newcastle.
Southampton vs Tottenham 1-2. Both lost on opening day, but in the meantime Spurs have ben boosted by the news of two signings from Real Madrid, including Gareth Bale. He won’t play in this game but spirits in the dressing room will be high.
Newcastle vs Brighton 1-0. The Magpies won away last week, but Chelsea were flattered by the 3-1 scoreline over Brighton. This is a game where all three results are possible.
Chelsea vs Liverpool 1-1. A betting nightmare, but I’d say you can throw the 0-0 result away. Liverpool, the champions, are favourites, but no good thing here. Again, all three results are possible.
Leicester vs Burnley 1-0. I’m only going for the home team here because they won last week, while I have Burnley down to struggle this season. They’re a tough side to break down. I think they’ll be involved in a number of 1-0s this season, either way.
Aston Villa vs Sheffield United 2-1. Now that I’m looking at it, a draw was my first instinct, but I wasn’t impressed by Sheffield United’s opening performance. Not an easy betting game, but I’m going for the home win. No certainty.
Wolves vs Manchester City 1-2. This, along with Chelsea vs Liverpool, is the match of the weekend. Wolves are an attacking, attractive side who won last week and City are the title favourites.
Suggested win all to come (best bet): Everton, Arsenal and Manchester United (2.06-1).
Suggested win all to come: Everton, Leeds, Arsenal, Manchester United and Leicester (6.98-1).
Suggested win all to come: Everton, Leeds, Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester United (10.85-1).
Best outside double: Newcastle win, Chelsea/Liverpool draw 8.36-1.
Last week’s best bet: Win all to come Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, won at 2.17-1.
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