EPL round 1: Wins for Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea

September 10, 2020

Fasten your seatbelts and start your engines. Another English Premier League is upon us. Most of us have a favourite team – mine is Chelsea – but when it comes to betting and Superbru predictions sentiment has no place in the discussion. 

Over the coming months I’ll be doing a predictions and betting blog for your favourite online betting platform, and with it I’m going to try to help you not only beat the odds, but win prizes if you’ve joined our GGaming pool on Superbru. Why take advice from me? 

Like you I’m an ardent follower of the EPL and I’ve been quite lucky – and as in all sport, luck is important – over the years. Two seasons ago I won the Superbru EPL Global competition, finishing first out of over 71 000 players. And, it went down to the final round of fixtures.

So, for this first column, I’d like to give you an insight as to how I go about structuring my bets and Superbru predictions. Of course, you’re your own boss, but I’m also making myself available to interact with GGGaming’s Twitter followers every Friday in the hope of steering you in the right direction. It has to be emphasised that this is a marathon and not a sprint. Don’t get despondent if you have a really bad week, it’s bound to happen. Last year I started off with 9 correct results out of the first 20. This early part of the season is particularly tough to gauge.

Generally speaking, if you can have a 50-55% success rate you’ll find yourself in the top few percent of Superbru players, while you’re also likely to have made money through your EPL bets. This is not like rugby where your winning percentage is likely to be in the mid-to-high 70s, as the draw in rugby is a rarity, while it’s very much “live” in soccer.

Getting the exact result earns you 3 points in Superbru, while the correct result, but not exact score, will earn you either 1 point or 1.5 points.  

My formula for the early part of the season is something that I’ve honed over the years and offers a further insight into how I approach the EPL.

In short, I write down my list of finishers, from 1-20, and follow my gut for the first number of rounds until there’s a clear formline. I also keep an eye on the months in England and up to the end of December I throw in higher scores than from January, when the bad weather sets in and you get to see more 0-0 draws and 1-0 wins, as opposed to the upcoming few months where the scorelines are marginally higher.

Also, there will be more away wins for now, given the lack of live crowds at stadiums due to the Covid-19 restrictions, while if you’re looking at bookings, research shows that they have been down, under 2.5 per game, compared to the over 2.5 per game when there’s a crowd to influence the referee,

The introduction of VAR has been controversial, but what it has produced is a number of penalties that might not ordinarily have been given, so if you’re betting on goalscorers then bear this in mind. 

For instance, Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes is likely to get a bag of goals from the spot this season, while Luka Milivojevic of Crystal Palace might also offer good reward for you over the next months if exact goalscorers is an attractive way for you to bet.

So, here’s my pre-season list of teams from 1-20, followed by my Superbru predictions. Feel free to interact with me via Twitter on @gggamingbet or @GaryLemke or through the “banter” option within our GGGaming pool on Superbru. I will do my utmost to try to help you have a fun and successful season.

1 Man City, 2 Liverpool, 3 Chelsea, 4 Man United, 5 Arsenal, 6 Tottenham, 7 Everton, 8 Wolves, 9 Leicester, 10 Leeds United, 11 Sheffield United, 12 Southampton, 13 Crystal Palace, 14 Newcastle, 15 Aston Villa, 16 Brighton, 17 West Brom, 18 Burnley, 19 West Ham, 20 Fulham.

My picks for this week:

Fulham 0 Arsenal 2; Crystal Palace 1 Southampton 1; Liverpool 2 Leeds 0; West Ham 1 Newcastle 1; West Brom 1 Leicester 2; Tottenham 1 Everton 1; Sheffield United 1 Wolves 2; Brighton 0 Chelsea 2.

Most obvious forecast this week: Liverpool (0.25). The 2-0 win is at 6.00.

Suggested all to come: Wins for Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea (2.17-1).

Outside double: Tottenham/Everton draw; West Ham/Newcastle draw 10.9-1

Visit gggaming.bet for all the EPL options for this round.

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